July 25, 2019

Political Thermometer


Elections held in June 2019 provided the first test for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his party, MORENA, after last year’s resounding political victory.  Election results generally favored the president and his party, although voter turnout was low, possibly due to the electorate’s fatigue from the 2018 electoral process.  Despite the triumph, total votes for MORENA generally decreased, while votes for the PAN party increased. The PRI gained enough votes to keep its party’s registration, contrary to predictions that it would lose such registration in Baja California and Aguascalientes.  MORENA won Puebla’s gubernatorial election, marking the most significant gain for the party. The Puebla election was extraordinary, given that it was required after the aviation accident in which Governor Martha Erika Alonso, her husband, who was an ex-governor of such state, and senator Rafael Moreno Valle all lost their lives.  Miguel Barbosa, the candidate who had previously lost the election to Alonso, was elected and now serves as the governor of this major Mexican state. In Baja California, where elections for governor were also held, the MORENA candidate won by forming a team of politicians previously affiliated with the PRI. The term for new governor, Jaime Bonilla, will last slightly longer than two years because of a constitutional amendment that was approved in 2014 to synchronize the state’s elections with the national electoral calendar.  The PAN lost the governorship in Baja California, a position it had won in five previous elections in a row. MORENA, now holds the governorships in six states, which include Puebla and Baja California, as well as Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Mexico City. The question now is what will happen in the 2020 elections and if MORENA will continue to be victorious in elections to be contested then.