The 2023 elections that will take place in the State of Mexico and Coahuila will be a prelude to what may happen in 2024’s presidential election. The State of Mexico is one of the most important federal entities in the country, if not the state that occupies the top spot. It has the largest population with almost 17 million inhabitants, followed by Mexico City with 9 million. It has the highest population density in the country with 174 persons per square kilometer. It also shares a suburban border with the country’s capital and features a large industrial concentration.
The elections will take place on June 4 in both the State of Mexico and Coahuila, where the PRI has historically governed. For this reason, the PRI will have at stake in these two elections a good part of its political future. If the party loses elections in both states it risks further abandonment by the electorate. If it manages to win one or both states, it can hope for a better future for this previously invincible political force. In accordance with the arrangements made by the Alianza Va por México comprised of the PRI, PAN and PRD, the PRI would set the guidelines for the elections in Coahuila and the State of Mexico, while the PAN would do so for Mexico City and for the presidential election in 2024. At present, matters are not looking encouraging for the PRI in the State of Mexico. Polls give MORENA’s candidate, Professor Delfina Gómez, a wide 25-point lead over Alejandra del Moral, the PRI candidate. Delfina Gómez received 47.1% in the poll of potential voters, while Moral barely reached 22.4%.
Coahuila shares a border with Texas and its economy has historically been based on mining, even though agricultural activity and the production of vehicles and construction materials such as steel and cement, are giving it a notable economic boost. Coahuila is the main producer in Mexico of barite, coke, iron, fluorspar and iron pellets, in addition to occupying the third place in the country as a producer of gold and silver. In Coahuila the scenario is less serious for the PRI. The candidate of the Va por México Alliance, Manolo Jiménez, reached 41.4% in a recent objective poll, while Armando Guadiana, the candidate of MORENA, reached 26.1%, and Ricardo Mejía, who broke the MORENA alliance Partido del Trabajo (PT), had just 16%.
We will see the results in June, which will provide an opportunity to make forecasts for the expected results of the national election of 2024 that will decide who will govern the country during the 2024-2030 six-year term.